Solana - Our wave count has played out as predicted. Wave 5 is underway and should see Solana hit $270-$400
Elliott Wave Analysis | SOL CMP: 237 | Dt - 17th Nov'24
Simple Speak
Our Wave Count for Solana has been accurate so far. It has followed a 1-3-5 impulse pattern since December 2022 and has now entered its final Wave 5 upward.
Those who purchased around the $170 level should be enjoying the ride and if you did so after reading our Solana update, you are welcome!!
As we mentioned earlier, this Wave 5 advance could push prices to the $270-$400 range, or potentially even higher.
That said, we had cautioned readers about the inherent volatility previously, and our recommendation remains unchanged. Given the overall choppiness in the broader Indices, it’s essential to exercise caution with speculative assets like Solana. One bad weekend and all your gains may get wiped out.
Chart Speak #1
Chart Speak #2
Previous Update - 29th Oct’24
Elliott Wave Analysis | SOL CMP: 180 | Dt - 29 Oct'24
Simple speak
Solana is slated to start its Wave 5 advance and that should see the price reach $270-$400 in the mid term.
However, given overall volatility, it is not clear if Solana will start this upward movement now or after a brief drop to test the channel trend line in Chart#1 below.
Incase it drops first then it may hit ~$135 before starting the Wave 5 advance above.
Alternate count - Given the uncertainty around overall market we also need to consider an alternate count. Which suggests Solana can drop to $75 before starting its Wave 5 advance. We will know more in the week of Nov 4th.
Wave Count #1 - Primary
Solana Chart #1 - Zoom Out
Solana Chart #2 - Zoom In
TA speak - Elliott Wave analysis by AlgoChirp
Solana Wave 1-5 advance started in 2022 and is currently in its Wave 4 which has taken a complex form. Given that it is little difficult to determine when it ends and when Wave 5 starts. Having said that, EW channel trend line should serve as a good support for Wave 4.
Final Wave 5 advance should see the prices reach $270-$400+ levels, if not higher. We expect this advance to be weak and end with significant RSI divergence.
Wave 5 targets are marked in Chart #2.
Wave Count #2 - Alternate count
TA speak - Elliott Wave analysis by AlgoChirp
Incase overall market remains weak then there is a possibility that Solana also breaks below the EW channel and corrects more.
If that happens then we see $77 area as a potential retracement target.
Even for this count the mid-term outlook is still the same - Wave 5 advance to $270+. The only concern is what happens in the short term.
Wave Count #1 vs #2
Although it seems Solana has broken out of the sloping trend line and usually we would call that a signal that Wave 4 has ended and Wave 5 advance is underway. However, given the overall market is a bit dicey given US elections, it is difficult to trust any breakouts. Especially, for high beta scripts like Solana. There is a high possibility of a reversal despite breakout above the trend line. It is best to see how the market evolves during the Week of Nov 4 and then finalize the wave count.