Solana - Short term uncertainty aside, it should start its Wave 5 advance soon and cross $270+
Elliott Wave Analysis | SOL CMP: 180 | Dt - 29 Oct'24
Simple speak
Solana is slated to start its Wave 5 advance and that should see the price reach $270-$400 in the mid term.
However, given overall volatility, it is not clear if Solana will start this upward movement now or after a brief drop to test the channel trend line in Chart#1 below.
Incase it drops first then it may hit ~$135 before starting the Wave 5 advance above.
Alternate count - Given the uncertainty around overall market we also need to consider an alternate count. Which suggests Solana can drop to $75 before starting its Wave 5 advance. We will know more in the week of Nov 4th.
Wave Count #1 - Primary
Solana Chart #1 - Zoom Out
Solana Chart #2 - Zoom In
TA speak - Elliott Wave analysis by AlgoChirp
Solana Wave 1-5 advance started in 2022 and is currently in its Wave 4 which has taken a complex form. Given that it is little difficult to determine when it ends and when Wave 5 starts. Having said that, EW channel trend line should serve as a good support for Wave 4.
Final Wave 5 advance should see the prices reach $270-$400+ levels, if not higher. We expect this advance to be weak and end with significant RSI divergence.
Wave 5 targets are marked in Chart #2.
Wave Count #2 - Alternate count
TA speak - Elliott Wave analysis by AlgoChirp
Incase overall market remains weak then there is a possibility that Solana also breaks below the EW channel and corrects more.
If that happens then we see $77 area as a potential retracement target.
Even for this count the mid-term outlook is still the same - Wave 5 advance to $270+. The only concern is what happens in the short term.
Wave Count #1 vs #2
Although it seems Solana has broken out of the sloping trend line and usually we would call that a signal that Wave 4 has ended and Wave 5 advance is underway. However, given the overall market is a bit dicey given US elections, it is difficult to trust any breakouts. Especially, for high beta scripts like Solana. There is a high possibility of a reversal despite breakout above the trend line. It is best to see how the market evolves during the Week of Nov 4 and then finalize the wave count.