Simple speak
Tl;dr - If one were to place a bet, Palantir potentially has better risk-reward on the upside. Having said that, given elevated volatility, option premiums are higher and a bigger move would be required to derive benefit.
Palantir posts earnings on 4th Nov, after close.
Options premiums are suggesting an 13% move in Palantir post earnings. This move is already factored in Option premiums. If you make a straddle then you will need a move of 13% either side to breakeven.
Looking at the PLTR chart, its channel and our EW count, you can see the three target levels if the results are good, in decreasing order of likelihood
Channel top acts as a resistance - 17% gain
Expanding triangle top as a resistance - 22% gain
Wave 5 target (FIB) acts as a resistance - 33% gain
And three target levels if the results are not great in the same decreasing order of likelihood
Channel bottom acts as support - 12% gain
Wave 5 target #1 acts as support - 13% gain
Wave 5 target #2 acts as support - 22% gain
Given PLTR has already been in a Wave 4 correction, the downside potential is limited if the current wave were to hold. We assign a high confidence level to the current wave count.
Chart speak
(As of 3rd Nov, 2024)
Previous Update - 24th Oct
Tl;dr - PLTR, is likely to continue its march higher towards $55. Given overall expected volatility due to Elections, one can expect deeper retracements vs what is the norm.
Section 1 - Simple speak
PLTR is currently in a strong upward impulse wave, this momentum should continue for a while and see the price make new highs.
Current advance is relatively slower vs April-May, 2023 and this is expected in a Wave 5. Once Wave 5 is complete (ETA 4-8 weeks), the prices should start a corrective pattern, taking prices lower.
PLTR Chart #1
Section 2 - Technical Analysis using Elliott Waves
Summary
PLTR has been in a five wave impulse pattern, with Wave 5 playing out.
PLTR is on track to hit $55 odd in Dec’24 and conclude its Wave 5 advance. Once Wave 5 terminates the stock should start an A-B-C correction.
Alternate count - Given US Elections are likely to keep the markets volatile, if the price breaks below the EW channel convincingly then we will need to relook at the count.