Okta - Earnings special

Dec 02, 2024

Tl;dr - If one were to place a bet, OKTA potentially has better risk-reward on the downside. Having said that, given elevated volatility, option premiums are higher and a bigger move would be required to derive any benefit.
Okta posts earnings on 3rd Dec, after close.
Options premiums are suggesting an 13.3% move in Okta post earnings. This move is already factored in Option premiums. If you make a straddle then you will need a move of 13%+ either side to breakeven.
Looking at the OKTA chart, its channel and our EW count, you can see the three target levels if the results are good, in decreasing order of likelihood
- Channel top acts as resistance - 6% gain
- AVWAP Channel boundary acts as resistance - 21% gain
- [Extreme scenario] Primary wave count invalidation point acts as a resistance - 43% gain
And three target levels if the results are not great in the same decreasing order of likelihood
- AVWAP channel boundary - 12.4% drop
- Channel bottom acts as support - 26% drop
- Long term support level - 36% drop
Given OKTA has already been in a Wave 2 correction upwards, the upside potential is limited if the current wave were to hold.

(As of 2nd Dec’24)

Previous Update - 1st Dec

Okta has been undergoing an ABC correction since 2021. Our primary wave count suggests that this correction is still in progress.
According to this count, Wave C is currently playing out, which should lead to prices dropping to $52 or lower.
If prices rise above $116, the odds will shift in favor of the alternate count provided in the next section below.

According to our alternate count, the ABC correction ended in November 2022, and a new impulse wave began at that point.
Wave 1 of this impulse wave concluded earlier this year, and Wave 2 retracement is currently underway.